The Effects of Productivity Shocks,Financial Shocks,and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises

What kind of shock affects exchange rate dynamics? How much of an effect does the monetary policy have on exchange rates? To answer these questions empirically based on the currency crisis model, I use panel data on 51 emerging countries from 1980 to 2011, identify shocks, and apply instrumental variable methods. I found that both productivity shocks and shocks to a country’s risk premium affect exchange rates and a 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate is associated with a 1 percentage point appreciation of domestic currency. I further apply this method to Asian and Latin-American crises.     

THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF OPTIMAL INVESTMENT AND CONSUMPTION WITH SMALL TRANSACTION COSTS

We investigate the general structure of optimal investment and consumption with small proportional transaction costs. For a safe asset and a risky asset with general continuous dynamics, traded with random and time‐varying but small transaction costs, we derive simple formal asymptotics for the optimal policy and welfare. These reveal the roles of the investors' preferences as well as the market and cost dynamics, and also lead to a fully dynamic model for the implied trading volume. In frictionless models that can be solved in closed form, explicit formulas for the leading‐order corrections due to small transaction costs are obtained.     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

Examining Tourists’ Push and Pull Travel Motivations and Behavioral Intentions: The Case of British Outbound Tourists to Phuket,Thailand

This research aimed specifically to (1) determine the socio-demographic characteristics and travel patterns of British tourists visiting Phuket; (2) identify the main “push” and “pull” travel motivations of British tourists visiting Phuket; and (3) examine the relationship between British tourists’ main “push/pull” motivations and future travel intention to Phuket. Findings revealed that British tourists’ main push motivations were: “to have fun,” “to rest and relax,” and “to escape from daily routine and environment”; while the main pull motivations were: “natural sceneries and landscapes,” “beaches,” and “hospitality and friendliness of the people.” There was also a relationship found between “push/pull” motivations and future travel intention to Phuket.     

反腐倡廉环境下创新国有企业领导人员经济责任审计内容探讨

反腐倡廉环境下创新国有企业领导人员经济责任审计内容是一项新的课题。本文对探索创新国有企业领导人员经济责任审计内容的必要性和我国法律规定的国有企业领导人员经济责任审计内容进行了综述，并根据审计实践，提出了“探索开展国有企业绩效审计”等5项审计内容，对创新国有企业领导人员经济责任审计内容进行了探讨，并针对目前创新国有企业领导人员经济责任审计内容面临的困难提出了健全绩效审计法律法规和评价指标、完善企业增资扩股行为的法律法规、加强对基层审计人员的培训学习等3条对策。     

行业报刊市场化经营之管见

在非时政类报刊陆续走向市场的大环境下,行业报刊的市场化势在必行。行业报刊的市场化经营,必须建立一支既懂行业报刊新闻业务,更懂行业报刊经营管理的人才队伍;必须建立与行业报刊市场化相适应的运作机制;必须注重实施行业报刊产业链发展战略。     

Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach

We use regular vine (r-vine), canonical vine (c-vine) and drawable vine (d-vine) copulas to examine the dependence risk characteristics of three 20-stock portfolios from the retail, manufacturing and gold-mining equity sectors of the Australian market in periods before, during and after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Our results indicate that the retail portfolio is less risky than the manufacturing counterpart in the crisis period, while the gold-mining portfolio is less risky than both the retail and manufacturing sector portfolios. Both the retail and gold stocks display a higher propensity to yield positively skewed returns in the crisis periods, contrary to the manufacturing stocks. The r-vine is found to best capture the multivariate dependence structure of the stocks in the retail and gold-mining portfolios, while the d-vine does it for the manufacturing stock portfolio. These findings could be used to develop dependence risk- and investment risk-adjusted strategies for investment, rebalancing and hedging which more adequately account for the downside risk in various market conditions.     

商界小说研究的力作——评杨虹的《叛逆与超越——近二十年中国商界小说的文化阐释》

《叛逆与超越》对近20年商界小说的成就与局限,从发生学、本体论、谱系学尤其是文化诗学的角度,通过挖掘与梳理大量的史料来透视商界小说的现代性品格。作者跳出传统审美批评的窠臼,立足文化批评,对商界小说进行多维度的研讨与透视,为我们带来了商界小说研究的重大进展。     

株洲市农村养老保障情况调查及思考

中国已步入“未富先老”的老龄化社会,农村养老保障问题日趋凸显,株洲市更是进入了非常重要而又十分特殊的社会转型时期.本文分析了株洲市农村养老保障的现状、存在的主要问题以及产生问题的根源,针对这些问题提出了相应的对策建议.